March Madness: NCAA Tournament Expert Picks & Predictions for Thursday, March 23
Expert picks for Thursday's Sweet 16 NCAA tournament games
Kate Constable - Mar 20, 2023, 3:45pm 
March Madness: NCAA Tournament Expert Picks & Predictions
March Madness is here, and BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NCAAB betting odds, best bets from our model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and much more. Below, you’ll see a breakdown for tonight’s most intriguing games from a betting perspective, expert picks from the BetQL Editorial Team, sleeper picks to consider as well as some epic promotions to take advantage of. Scroll down to get started or click on any of the links below to head to a specific section.
NCAA Tournament Predictions: Thursday, March 20
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 2 UCLA Prediction
My Pick: UCLA 1H -2
All season long, I’ve loved taking Gonzaga to cover in the first half. And for the most part, the Zags have delivered. However, that’s changed over its first two tournament games. The Zags have started slow in each of those games and failed to cover the first-half number. They were down five at the half to TCU and were only up four over Grand Canyon, despite that line being -9. Meanwhile, UCLA has dominated the first half of games with a 10 points lead over Northwestern and 21 points lead over UNC Ashville. The Bruins are also going to be looking for revenge over the Zags after Jalen Suggs' half-court buzzer-beater in overtime knocked them out of the Final Four in 2021. I expect UCLA to be ready to go from the jump and have no problem covering -1 at the break.
No. 9 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 4 Tennessee Prediction
My Pick: Tennessee -5
Tennessee just manhandled a very good Duke team. The Vols pushed the Blue Devils around in a way that not many teams have done to them this season. They own the best defense in the country and that’s going to come in handy when facing a Florida Atlantic team that likes to get up and down the court and can score with the best of them. FAU is a much smaller team, and while that smaller size may come in handy in terms of being the quicker team, the Owls haven’t shot the ball all that well from deep in its first two games. FAU is just 17 of 59 from beyond the arc and getting open looks isn’t going to be easy being the Vols three-point defense is the best in the country. Tennessee is also great on the offensive boards and after watching it pull down 12 o-boards against a much bigger Duke team, I’m not confident FAU is going to fair much better. Lay the points with the Vols.
No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 4 UConn Prediction
My pick: UConn -3.5
Despite overcoming a 12-point second-half deficit to knock off the No. 1 seed Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday, I am a bit worried for the Razorbacks in the Sweet 16 vs. UConn. The Huskies will have the size advantage down low with Adama Sanogo and Donvan Clingan who have both been dominant throughout the first two rounds. Sanogo is averaging 26 points and 10.5 rebounds while Clingan has given the Huskies solid minutes and production off the bench. Arkansas got passed Kansas thanks in large part to a huge game from Davonte Davis who put up a season-high 25 points with 21 of those coming in the second half. That type of performance, while impressive, is out of the ordinary for Davis and I don’t see him repeating it for a second-straight game. What’s also a little concerning for Eric Musselman’s squad is the fact that Nick Smith Jr. has been a non-factor so far. When healthy, Smith has been the Razorbacks best player, yet he was held scoreless against Kansas and only had six points against Illinois. Arkansas is going to need him to figure things out if it wants a shot at getting past UConn.
More NCAA Tournament Picks, Props, Parlays & Sleepers
Dan Karpuc: Arkansas +125 ML 1H vs. UConn. UConn may have won both of their games so far in the NCAA Tournament, but they struggled in the first half of both contests. In their first game against Iona, they trailed by two heading into the locker room and against Saint Mary’s in the second round, they held a one-point advantage. Credit goes to Dan Hurley and his staff for making adjustments during the intermission of both victories, but this Connecticut team came out flat both times and now has to face an Arkansas team that’s just as talented as they are with more future pro talent on their roster. Give me the Razorbacks to be winning at halftime at these odds.
Gonzaga +105 vs. UCLA (DK). Gonzaga has won the last two meetings with UCLA and is 5-2 against the Bruins historically. Drew Timme and Gonzaga just took down TCU, with Timme scoring 28 points in that one. UCLA blew their lead against Northwestern, though they did win the game of course, but I think Gonzaga can topple them here and move on.
Arkansas +150 (FanDuel). I feel like Arkansas is a team that has gotten hot and figured it out at just the right time. Remember, this was a top-10 ranked team coming into the season, so they clearly have the talent to be able to compete with anyone. The problem has been inconsistent play and lack of chemistry, but it seems they have figured that out on their way to the Sweet 16. Connecticut is very good, no question, but at a +150 number on FanDuel, I think the ‘hogs are live.
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