2023 March Madness Upset, Underdog & Cinderella Picks
BetQL’s March Madness upset picks for the 2023 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament
March Madness Upset Picks Today
This is March Madness, so you can expect quite a large amount of upsets this time of the year, and BetQL has you covered with all of our best bets on who will come out victorious. A lot of these underdogs will get you some really great plus-money, and that means larger profits. The NCAA Tournament can be very tricky to bet on, as the lines are so sharp. Sportsbooks have their "A-team" of oddsmakers, so to speak, working on these.
BetQL ranks every single moneyline bet on a star scale of one to five, with five stars being the most valuable bet at the current number. Our expert algorithms analyze every single bet, every single day, to always give you the advantage over the books. Even a small edge can be all it takes to stay in the green, as going 1-1 with a plus-money winner will likely keep you up with a profit.
We recommend tailing three-star and higher plus-money bets, with three stars being a smaller wager and five stars being a larger one. Of course, we also have our game pages, which will help you make a more informed bet on which underdogs to back and, more importantly, where to get the best prices!
March Madness Expert Upset Picks For Sweet 16
Dan Karpuc: Arkansas ML 1H vs. UConn (+126, FanDuel)
UConn may have won both of its games so far in the NCAA tournament, but the Huskies struggled in the first half of both contests. In their first game against Iona, they trailed by two heading into the locker room and against Saint Mary’s in the second round, they held a one-point advantage. Credit goes to Dan Hurley and his staff for making adjustments during the intermission of both victories, but this Connecticut team came out flat both times and now has to face an Arkansas team that’s just as talented as they are with more future pro talent on their roster. Give me the Razorbacks to be winning at halftime at these odds.
You can get the best price on Arkansas' 1H ML at FanDuel, along with a great welcome bonus below!
: Arkansas ML vs. UConn (+150, BetMGM)
I agree with Dan, though I don't know if halftime adjustments will save UConn this time. This Arkansas team is super-talented and finally healthy. Don't forget that Eric Musselman and Co. made the Elite Eight last year and are a very good bet at plus-money to get back there again by beating UConn.
You can get the best price on Arkansas at BetMGM, along with a great welcome bonus below!
: Florida Atlantic ML vs. Tennessee (+215, Bet365)
Florida Atlantic just defeated what was arguably the Cinderella team of this tournament in FDU and I see them carrying that momentum into this one against Tennessee to take them down. Johnell Davis scored 29 points in that win over FDU, with Alijah Martin putting up 14 of his own, and I see FAU putting up big points once again to beat Tennessee.
You can get the best price on FAU at Bet365, along with a great welcome bonus below!
: Kansas State ML vs. Michigan State (+115, Caesars)
Tom Izzo has his team rolling right now with wins over USC and Marqette in the first two rounds. The Spartans handled Marquette’s guards as good as any team this season, holding Tyle Kolek to just seven points. However, I think Kolek’s hand injury was bothering him a little bit more than he let on.
Kansas State guard Markquis Nowell is going to be another big challenge for MSU when these two teams meet in the Sweet 16. Nowell is one of the quickest guards in the league and can blow past his defenders. He can also shoot from anywhere on the floor, which makes defending him in the pick-and-roll pretty difficult. My only concern for the Wildcats is their ability to keep the Spartans off the boards. But if they’re able to do that, and guard Desi Sills has another big performance alongside Keyonte Johnson and Nowell, I like Kansas State to pull off the small upset.
You can get the best price on Kansas State at Caesars, along with a great welcome bonus below!
March Madness Cinderella Picks For NCAA Tournament
Don't think that we won't have you covered with all kinds of other bets on the NCAA Tournament, because outside of our underdog bets, we also have star-rated picks on the total, first half, and player props! Our model is able to simulate every game 10,000 times and give you the most likely outcome for each bet. It's amazing what technology can do in the year of 2023, and with the BetQL model getting better and better every season by adapting and learning, the books don't have a prayer.
March Madness is not a time when you want to bet without being informed as much as possible on every game, and with our game pages, you will have all the info you need at your fingertips for the entire NCAA Tournament. Best bets, statistics, ATS records, and all kinds of useful trends to make sure you make the best bet for every game to give you the biggest edge.
Understanding Underdog Picks For March Madness
In sports betting, there is always going to be a favorite and an underdog. The favorite is who is projected to win the game, and they come with a "-" sign in front of their odds. This means that you will have to pay a bit of "juice" to make this bet. So, a -110 bet means that you will have to bet $110 to win $100. Underdogs are the teams that are projected to lose the game, and carry a "+" sign next to their odds. This means that you will get money on top of your bet. So a +110 odds line means that a $100 bet wins you $110 in profit.
That is called getting plus money, and those bets can be very valuable and offer the biggest payday if you can pick some winners as underdogs. Good news, as BetQL will have all the most valuable underdogs right at your fingertips that have the best chance to upset the favorite. Use all of our great tools and info to bet on these 'dogs and start bringing home the bacon this month.
What is a March Madness Cinderella?
A "Cinderella" in March Madness is a term used to describe a team that is not expected to perform well, but manages to make an unexpected deep run in the tournament. These teams are often underdogs with low-seeded positions in the bracket, and they typically come from smaller, less well-known schools.
The term "Cinderella" is derived from the fairy tale of the same name, in which a poor, lowly girl rises to prominence and finds success against all odds. Similarly, a March Madness Cinderella is a team that exceeds expectations and achieves unexpected success.
Some of the most famous Cinderella stories in March Madness history include George Mason University in 2006, which reached the Final Four as an 11th seed, and Loyola Chicago in 2018, which made a surprising run to the Final Four as an 11th seed as well.
What Are the Biggest Upsets in March Madness History?
March Madness is known for its upsets, with lower-seeded teams often knocking off higher-seeded teams in thrilling games. Here are a few of the biggest upset picks in March Madness history:
- 1985: #8 Villanova over #1 Georgetown - In one of the biggest upsets in tournament history, Villanova, as an 8th seed, upset the top-ranked Georgetown Hoyas to win the NCAA Championship. This game is widely regarded as one of the greatest upsets in sports history.
- 1991: #15 Richmond over #2 Syracuse - In the first round of the tournament, #15 Richmond shocked #2 Syracuse with a 73-69 win, becoming the first #15 seed to win a game in tournament history.
- 1993: #2 Santa Clara over #2 Arizona - In one of the most memorable upsets in tournament history, Steve Nash and #15 Santa Clara upset #2 Arizona in the first round, with Nash scoring 10 points and dishing out 5 assists in the game.
- 1996: #13 Princeton over #4 UCLA - In a classic David vs. Goliath matchup, #13 Princeton upset #4 UCLA with a 43-41 victory. The game was notable for Princeton's slow-paced offense and disciplined defense, which frustrated the higher-seeded Bruins.
- 2012: #15 Norfolk State over #2 Missouri - In one of the most shocking upsets in tournament history, #15 Norfolk State upset #2 Missouri in the first round, with Kyle O'Quinn leading the way with 26 points and 14 rebounds.
These are just a few of the biggest upset picks in March Madness history, but there are many more memorable upsets that have taken place over the years.
What is the Lowest Seed to win the NCAA Tournament?
The lowest seed to win the NCAA Tournament is #8, which has happened twice in tournament history.
The first time it happened was in 1985, when the Villanova Wildcats, as an #8 seed, went on a magical run to win the tournament. They upset #1-seeded Michigan in the Elite Eight, and then went on to beat #2-seeded North Carolina in the Final Four, before upsetting #1-seeded Georgetown in the championship game.
The second time it happened was in 2011, when the Connecticut Huskies, also an #8 seed, won the tournament. They beat #2-seeded San Diego State in the Sweet 16, #5-seeded Arizona in the Elite Eight, #3-seeded Kentucky in the Final Four, and then defeated #8-seeded Butler in the championship game.
No #9, #10, #11, #12, #13, #14, or #15 seed has ever won the NCAA Tournament. The #16 seed has never won a game in the tournament's history.
What are the Most Common March Madness Upsets?
The most typical March Madness upset seeding is the #12 seed over the #5 seed. In the history of the tournament, #12 seeds have beaten #5 seeds over 50% of the time in the first round.
This upset is so common that it has become known as the "5-12 upset." Many bracketologists and analysts often look for potential #12 seed upsets when filling out their brackets, as it has become a common occurrence in the tournament.
Other common upsets in the tournament include the #11 seed over the #6 seed, the #10 seed over the #7 seed, and the #9 seed over the #8 seed, although these upsets happen less frequently than the 5-12 upset.
It's important to note, however, that upsets can happen in any game and any round of the tournament, and that no team is truly safe from an upset. The unpredictability of March Madness is what makes it such a thrilling and exciting event for fans of college basketbal
Need more March Madness Picks?
At BetQL we have everything you need for March Madness and for the NIT. Which ever college basketball tournament you are looking to bet we have best bets waiting for you!
March Madness fans we have everything you need with our college basketball expert picks; you can find out where the experts are putting down their cash for every game and every bet type this month.
Want to hear from our BetQL staff? We have March Madness over under picks, prop picks, and college basketball parlays waiting for you every single day of the NCAA Tournament.
Don’t forge that NIT tickets cash just the same as NCAA Tournament do, so check out our 2023 NIT Picks for every single night of tournament.
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