Found on every game page, our model compares its projections with live sportsbook lines and assigns a star rating (one to five, five being the most valuable) to every NBA player prop that exists from our sportsbook partners. Below, you’ll see my favorite personal plays, but you’ll have to be a premium subscriber to unlock all of our player prop values!
Damian Lillard Over 9.5 Points 1Q vs. Jazz (-105, DraftKings)
No Jerami Grant and no Anfernee Simons means massive usage is incoming for Damian Lillard yet again. His full-game point total is 36.5, which paints the picture of how he’s expected to go off. With Grant and Simons off the court this season, Dame has a ridiculous 40.6% usage rate and has averaged 1.21 points per minute per RotoGrinders’ free Court IQ tool. Assuming that he plays his usual 9.4 minutes in the first quarter, that translates to a 11.37 point output. If he plays 10, 11 or 12 minutes, that upside is obviously even greater.
Anthony Davis Over 39.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Suns (-119, Caesars)
With Deandre Ayton out, I expect AD to go off against the Suns in this matchup. He had one of his best outputs of the entire season against the Suns earlier in the year (37 points, 21 rebounds) and while both of these rosters look different now, that history can’t hurt to point out. The Thunder took advantage of Phoenix’s lack of a rim protector in the Suns’ last game (Ayton was also out then) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went 16-for-19 from the free throw line. I expect the game plan to be similar for Davis in this one, as the Lakers should go to him early and often in the post offensively. He should also be able to control the defensive glass with legitimate 30-plus point, 20-plus rebound upside. As long as he stays out of the locker room and on the court, we should be good here.
Kevon Looney Over 0.5 Steals vs. Mavericks (-105, DraftKings)
Looney has recorded a steal in five of his last six games and in seven of his last nine outings heading into this matchup against Dallas. He showed off his upside with a five-steal night against the Bucks back on March 11. While there are always question marks with Looney’s playing time based on Steve Kerr’s rotations, when he’s on the court, he looks to make an impact on the defensive end. At this price, I’m all over this.