Below, you’ll see a breakdown for some of tonight’s most intriguing games from a betting perspective, expert picks from the BetQL Editorial Team, sleeper picks to consider as well as some epic promotions to take advantage of. Scroll down to get started or click on any of the links below to head to a specific section.
The San Antonio Spurs (19-52 SU, 30-41 ATS, 41-29-1 O/U) look to avoid a season sweep when they meet the New Orleans Pelicans (34-37 SU, 32-38-1 ATS, 35-36 O/U) tonight for the fourth and final time this season.
The Pelicans have dominated this series, winning each of the three previous meetings by an average of 15.3 points. The total has also gone over tonight’s total in two of the three games, yet our model is on the under tonight and I agree with it. San Antonio has hit the over in three of its last four games, but two of those went into overtime and its most recent game that stayed under was an absurdly high total of 246 against the Hawks. While the Spurs like to push the pace, both of these offenses are extremely inefficient. San Antonio’s offense ranks 26th over the last 10 games and New Orleans is only one spot ahead of them, ranking 25th. Surprisingly, both defenses are above league average over that span. While the Spurs are already eliminated from the playoffs, the Pelicans still have a shot at slipping into the play-in. In order to do that, they’ll need to rely more heavily on their defense to get the job done. BetMGM has the best number at 234.5. Grab the under and a nice sign-up bonus in the process!
My pick: under 234.5
The Sacramento Kings (43-27 SU, 39-31 ATS, 36-33-1) host the Boston Celtics (49-23 SU, 37-34-1 ATS, 35-36-1 O/U) tonight after losing to the Utah Jazz last night.
I faded the Kings last night in Utah because of the tough schedule spot they were in and that bet hit. I’m going to do the same tonight because this spot might be even worse. Mike Brown’s squad is back home after a four-game road trip to Chicago, Brooklyn, Washington and Utah. Sacramento is now playing its fifth game in seven nights, on a back-to-back, with cross-country travel mixed in. I know the Kings don’t typically believe in resting players, but this is a spot where they might want to.
Meanwhile, Boston is wrapping up a six-game road trip tonight, however, it hasn’t played since losing to the Jazz on Saturday, so it's coming into this game with a major rest advantage. Over the last five games, both of these teams have a top-10 offensive rating, yet the Kings defense ranks 24th. Add in quite a bit of fatigue from their recent schedule and I’m not sure they’re going to have what it takes to stop Boston on the offensive end. Expect the Celtics to take this game seriously and finish off this road trip on a high note.
My pick: Celtics -4.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder (35-35 SU, 43-26-1 ATS, 41-29 O/U) head to the West Coast where they’ll meet the Los Angeles Clippers (37-34 SU, 36-35 ATS, 32-38-1 O/U) tonight for the start of a four-game road trip.
These two teams have already met twice this season with OKC winning both games at home despite being underdogs in each matchup. Both teams come into tonight’s game having won four of their last five games and rank in the top four in defensive rating over that stretch. The Clippers should thrive on the boards tonight and be able to gather a ton of second-chance points seeing as they rank fifth in the league in that category over the last five games. The Thunder also don’t have the personnel in the frontcourt to slow down Ivica Zubac and Mason Plumlee. Meanwhile, OKC ranks second in points off turnovers and fast break points as of late, so they’ll have the edge in that category against the Clippers defense that is just league average at defending in those categories. The Thunder have also had quite a bit of success covering against this L.A. team, going 6-1 ATS over their last seven meetings. This number has already come down from where it opened at +7, so grab it at +6.5 before it moves even more.
My pick: Thunder +6.5
Thunder +6.5 at Clippers. The Thunder have gone 20-12-1 ATS on the road this season and with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing against the team that traded him to OKC, I expect him to go off in this matchup tonight. The Clippers have gone 16-19 ATS at home and have been one of the most frustrating teams in the league all year based on their inability to find any cohesion (that’s a product of Kawhi Leonard sitting and trades, too, to be fair). The Thunder have gone 14-2 ATS against teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season, so that elite trend is active tonight as well. Give me the Thunder +7 and I’d be comfortable targeting them up to +5 if the line moves.
Brandon Ingram u27.5 points. The Pelicans are expected to blow out the horrendous Spurs tonight, and if that happens to be the case, Ingram could be pulled early. Not only that, he hasn’t exactly been going off lately. He’s failed to surpass this number in five straight games, with 26 being his highest in that frame. He’s averaging just 20.2 points in that same span. I’ll bank on him staying under 28 points tonight.
Thunder +6.5 vs. Clippers. The Thunder have covered the spread in four of their last five games and in seven of their last nine. They are also 42-26-3 ATS this season and 18-8-3 ATS as the road underdog. And the Thunder won and covered the spread in both of their matchups against the Clippers this season, both as the underdog. So I see the Thunder covering the spread here tonight against the Clippers.
Brad Pinkerton: Magic ML, Wagner 20+ pts & Banchero 20+ pts (+700, Bet365). This odds boost (from +575 to +700) on Bet365 caught my eye because it only builds to +425 on DraftKings. Even with DK's 20% stepped up SGP boost, this combo is still only +510! Getting it at +700 at Bet365 is definitely worth a sprinkle on this longshot, plus you can get an amazing welcome offer below and even use your free bets on this boost!
BetMGM NBA OGP Insurance Play of the Day
Brad Pinkerton: Wizards-Magic +400 One-Game Parlay. If you're not playing BetMGM's NBA OGP Insurance promo yet, you're leaving money on the table. Opt in to the promo and place a four-leg (minimum) NBA one-game parlay with at least +400 odds; if your OGP loses by one leg, you'll get your stake back in a free bet up to $25 -- and you can take advantage of this promo once every day there's an NBA game!
The new +400 odds requirement makes this much harder, but we've hit a couple of these already using the strategy of "middling" the alt total and alt spreads for each team to increase our chances of getting the insurance if the OGP doesn't hit. Also, DO NOT play these OGPs without the promo, as the insurance is the only reason these bets are valuable over time.
Here is my play for today. You can adjust each leg to your liking and apply this strategy to any NBA game, any night:
OGP odds: +400
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